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The financial meltdown pains hitting the United States has also hit home on the fashion runway, when New York Fashion Week takes off, but its impact may be surprising.  Certainly, less business will be done than usual, and some designs will be muted, industry experts say. But at the same time, some designers will interpret the financial downturn as an excuse to turn up the fashion excess.

“The wonderful thing about fashion is it will always do the opposite of what you think,” said James Aguiar, co-host of the “Full Frontal Fashion,” a television program that covers fashion shows.

Just when you would think things would be more conservative, there are likely to be more lavish, extreme displays on the catwalk, Aguiar said.

“If anything, people will be more desperate to get attention that they think is going to generate business,” said David Wolfe, creative director of the Doneger Group, a New York trend forecasting company, who also expects more theatre.

But while they may turn up the drama on the runway, there’ll be a big gap between what designers show and what they actually end up selling during the week.

U.S. consumers have curbed their spending in recent months as a decline in the housing market takes hold. Shopping over the Christmas retail season was the worst in five years, even hitting luxury names like Saks Inc, Tiffany & Co, Coach Inc and Richemont.

Designer Rebecca Taylor, whose women’s fashions are sold at high-end U.S. stores such as Bergdorf Goodman, Saks and Bloomingdale’s, said she expects fall 2008 to be more commercial as some retailers, still reeling from last year’s dramatic slowdown, take fewer risks.

“As traffic slows in the department stores, buyers are really looking for bankability,” Taylor said. However, her own orders have tripled over the last year and she expects to drive $5 million in sales between her runway show on Thursday and a trade show the following weekend. She declined to give a figure for last February’s show for comparison.

Retail consultant Sanjay Srikanth of management consultancy A.T. Kearney warned that Taylor’s expectation would be atypical, as buyers trim the size of their orders to keep inventories tight.